A far quieter week for data and events for the US, UK and Eurozone, particularly on Good Friday (national holiday), with no major central bank policy meetings scheduled. Focus in the US will likely be on speeches by voting FOMC members Dudley, Mester, Quarles and Bostic – and any hints that four rate hikes still on the cards for 2018 – and personal consumption and price data for February (Thursday)
Monday 26th March
United States: FOMC Members Dudley and Mester speak
United Kingdom: Consumer Price Inflation (Feb) Consensus forecast that yoy headline/core inflation fell to 2.8%/ 2.5% as Sterling inflationary pressures fade. Sticky inflation would increase probability of May hike. House prices (Jan) +5.3% yoy in Q4 2017 (vs 6.7% yoy in 12 months prior to referendum)
Tuesday 27th March
United States: FOMC Members Quarles and Bostic speak
Wednesday 28th March
United States: Third estimate of Q4 2017 GDP. Market may be sensitive to any minor revisions to current estimate of 2.5% qoq annualized.
Thursday 29th March
United States: Personal Consumption Price (PCE) headline and core price index (Feb). These key measures of inflation for the Fed have stagnated around 1.7% yoy and 1.5-1.6% respectively in recent months and the Fed will be looking for an up-tick to further justify the need for three (or more) rate hikes this year.
United Kingdom: Third estimate of Q4 2017 GDP. GDP growth was a modest 0.4% qoq and 1.4% yoy according to preliminary estimates, putting the UK at the bottom of the G7 league-table. Large revisions to Q4 data are unlikely but they will provide further information on the drivers of growth.
Friday 31st March
Good Friday (public holiday)
