It’s a big week for central bankers with both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England holding policy meetings. The US data calendar is also pretty heavy with the focus on durable goods orders, consumer confidence, goods trade balance and the first estimate of Q4 GDP.
In Europe, the main data release is Eurozone CPI-inflation for January (out on Friday) but Switzerland is also due to publish trade, KOF leading indicator and retail sales figures.
On the other side of the world, Australian CPI-inflation numbers for Q4 (out Wednesday) are likely to get some attention.
Monday 27th January
Eurozone: German Ifo business climate index (January). German macro data have improved in recent months but the Ifo index, which hit a six-month high of 97.0 in January, dipped slightly in January.
Tuesday 28th January
Switzerland: Trade balance (December)
United States: Durable goods orders (December). This proxy for domestic investment tends to be volatile and analysts forecast that headline orders, which have contracted about 3% in the past four months, rebounded 0.5% mom in December.
United States: Consumer Board consumer confidence (January). Consumer confidence was very stable in Q4 2019 which has helped stabilise consumer demand and GDP growth. Analysts forecast a small improvement in January to 128.0 from 126.5 in December.
Wednesday 29th January
Australia: CPI-inflation (Q4). Headline CPI-inflation rose to 1.7% yoy in Q3 from 1.3% yoy in Q1. Analysts forecast an unchanged number in Q4 but the wildfires in Australia have introduced an element of uncertainty.
United States: Goods trade balance (December, preliminary data). The US merchandise trade deficit has been shrinking rapidly, falling to $63bn in November 2019 (a 2-year low) from $80.4bn in February – a trend which President Trump has welcomed. However analysts forecasts that the trade deficit widened to
$68.8bn in December.
United States: Federal Reserve policy meeting, statement and press conference. FOMC members have been near unanimous that the US economy is in a good place and that the current policy rate is appropriate even if still data-dependent. The consensus forecast is therefore that the Fed will keep rates unchanged but it will likely have to address the recent rapid fall in US government bond yields and markets’ pricing of 33bp of Fed rate cuts in 2020.
New Zealand: Trade balance (December). This is a very seasonal data series
Thursday 30th January
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (January). This indicator of how the Swiss economy is likely to fare over the following six months was range bound in 2019 around the 95 level and analyst predict little change in January 2020.
United Kingdom: Monetary Policy Council meeting. Markets are pricing in 13.5bp of rate cuts and analysts are divided as to whether a majority of nine MPC members will vote to cut rates 25bp to 0.50%. At the very least one or two MPC members may join Haskel and Saunders in voting for a rate cut.
United States: GDP (Q4 2019, preliminary estimate). The consensus forecast is that US annualised GDP growth was broadly unchanged for the second consecutive quarter at 2.1% qoq.
Friday 31st January
Australia: Private sector credit (December)
Switzerland: Retail sales (December). Swiss retail sales growth, which was subdued throughout most of 2019, rebounded to about 1% yoy in October-November.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (January, preliminary estimate). Core and headline CPI-inflation in the Eurozone has remained weak at 1.3% yoy and analysts forecast little change in January. If this proves correct this will keep the ECB under pressure to tweak monetary policy in order to reflate Eurozone economic growth and inflation.
United Kingdom: UK to officially leave the European Union and transition period to start. Government wants transition period, during which the UK will not be able to sign trade deals with other nations, to last no more than 11 months.
