This week’s calendar is heavy in the US, Switzerland and New Zealand.
In the US the focus will be on the second reading of Q1 GDP, April data for the goods trade balance, pending home sales and importantly PCE inflation and May figures for consumer confidence. Similarly, in Switzerland the calendar is set for the release of Q1 GDP, April trade balance and the forward-looking KOF indicator (May). New Zealand has been in focus due to the RBNZ’s dovishness and Governor Orr is due to speak on Tuesday. Moreover, the government will announce its annual budget.
The data calendar is light in the UK, European Union and Australia but the results of the European Union parliamentary elections will be of interest across the board.
Monday 27th May
European Union: ECB Board member Coeure to speak
Tuesday 28th May
Switzerland: GDP, Q1 2019. Switzerland narrowly missed a recession in H2 2018, with GDP growth rebounding to 0.2% qoq in Q4 from -0.2% qoq in Q3. But monthly indicators suggest that growth remained tepid in Q1 2019, with analysts forecasting 0.3% qoq and 1.0% yoy.
Switzerland: Trade balance (April).
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence (May). US consumer confidence had been on the ascendancy until October but has since come off the boil which has in turn seemingly weighed on US retail sales growth.
Wednesday 29th May
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor Orr to speak. The RBNZ has arguably been the most dovish developed economy central bank, having cut rates 25bp earlier this month and indicated that the risk remained bias towards further rate cuts. Governor Orr may provide further guidance on the matter.
Switzerland: KOF Leading Indicators (May). This forward-looking indicator of Swiss economic activity has been choppy at a depressed level so far this year and is expected to have remained broadly unchanged in May – suggesting that GDP growth did not pick up much, if at all, in early Q2 from a forecasted 0.3% qoq in Q1 2019 (see above).
European Union: German labour market data (May).
Thursday 30th May
New Zealand: ANZ business confidence index (May).
Australia: Building approvals (April)
New Zealand: Annual budget release
United States: Q1 GDP (second reading). GDP growth accelerated from 2.2% qoq seasonally annualised in Q4 2018 to 3.2% in Q1 2019 according to the first reading. Analysts forecast a small downward revision to 3.1%
United States: Pending home sales (April)
United States: Goods trade balance (April, advance release). The trade deficit shrank significantly in March to $71.3bn from $80.4bn in February but is expected to have stabilised in April. Unlikely to give US President Trump much comfort that his foreign trade policy has so far yielded the right result.
United States: FOMC member Clarida to speak.
Friday 31st May
Switzerland: Retail sales (April). Swiss retail sales have declined in year-on-year terms for the past five months and are expected to have once again contracted 0.8% yoy in April.
United States: Personal income, spending and PCE price index (April). The core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index is the Federal Reserve’s favoured measure of consumer price inflation. It has inched lower from 2.0% yoy in December to 1.6% yoy in March which has arguably contributed to the Federal Reserve’s cautious wait-and-see approach on interest rates.
United States: FOMC member Williams to speak.
