Focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday, as well as US durable goods, consumer confidence, income, spending and PCE-inflation figures. The US, the world’s largest economy, and Germany (the 4th largest) will also be releasing Q2 GDP data and it will make for uncomfortable reading.
Monday 27th July
Eurozone: German Ifo Business Climate Index (July).
United States: Durable goods orders (June). Analysts estimate that this proxy for domestic investment rose a further 7.2% mom after having rebounded 15.7% mom in May.
Tuesday 28th July
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence index (July). The rebound in US consumer confidence has underpinned the recovery in US economic activity but analysts forecast that the index slipped to 94.5 in July from 98.1 in June in the face of state-wide spikes in covid-19 cases.
Wednesday 29th July
Australia: CPI-inflation (Q2 2020). Markets may regard this as now “old” data, particularly with the RBA seemingly intent on keeping monetary policy unchanged for now.
United Kingdom: Bank of England credit and bank deposit data (June). These figures are important in understanding what households and corporates are doing with their cash – i.e. are they spending it, depositing it with domestic banks or using it to repay loans.
United States: Federal Reserve policy meeting, statement and press conference. This will likely be the highlight for the week with the question being whether and to what extent the Fed is willing to make monetary policy more accommodative should the recovery in US economic activity stall or reverse.
Thursday 30th July
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (July).
Eurozone: German labour market and CPI-inflation data (July).
Eurozone: German GDP data (Q2). Analysts estimate that GDP in the Eurozone’s largest economy contracted 9% qoq in Q2. Having already contracted 2.2% qoq in Q1 the economy will have been in recession in Q2, as will have most major economies.
United States: GDP data (Q2). Analysts estimate that GDP contracted by an annualised 34% qoq in Q2, which if correct would be the largest quarterly contraction in decades. GDP shrunk 5% (annualised) in Q1 and the US economy was almost definitely in recession in Q2.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 30th July). The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time rose for the first time (in 14 weeks) in the week to 23rd July to 1.416 million.
Friday 31st July
Australia: Private sector credit (June).
Switzerland: Retail sales (June)
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (July, preliminary data). Consensus forecast is that headline CPI-inflation fell to 0.2% yoy from 0.3% yoy in June.
Eurozone: GDP (Q2, preliminary data). GDP in the Eurozone is expected to have collapsed 11.2% qoq in Q2, having already retraced 3.6% qoq in Q1. Few if any of the 19 Eurozone member states will have escaped being in technical recession in Q2.
United States: Spending, income and PCE-inflation (June).