It’s a very big week for tier-one macro data and events, with the US taking centre-stage. Monthly data on international trade, private-sector employment, consumer confidence as well as the first reading for Q3 GDP are due out before the Fed’s policy meeting on Wednesday. US figures for personal income, spending and prices, labour market data and manufacturing PMI numbers top off the week.
In the Eurozone, ECB President Draghi officially steps down on Thursday, the same day as CPI-inflation and Q3 GDP data are due for release. SNB Chairperson Jordan also speaks on Thursday, with Swiss retail sales and inflation numbers due out the following day.
In the UK, the Brexit-event calendar remains fluid, with possible parliamentary votes on whether to hold an early general election.
Finally in Australia, the focus will be on Q3 inflation data out on Wednesday, 24 hours after RBA Governor Lowe is due to speak.
Monday 28th October
United Kingdom: Parliamentary vote on whether to hold early general election (tentative).
United States: Goods trade balance (September). The US monthly trade deficit has remained elevated – at around $73bn – which has kept US President Trump on the offensive with the United State’s major trading partners, including China and the Eurozone.
Tuesday 29th October
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe to speak. Lowe recently talked down the need for another RBA rate cut but markets are still pricing in a 25bp rate for Q1 2020.
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence index (October). Robust consumer confidence has helped underpin household demand and GDP growth but it did fall in both August and September. Analysts forecast a rebound to 127.4 in October from 125.1 in September.
Wednesday 30th October
Australia: CPI-inflation (Q3). Analysts forecast little change from Q2 (0.6% qoq, 1.6% yoy). Any meaningful deviation from forecast could see a flurry of activity in the domestic rates markets and re-pricing of the odds of the RBA again cutting rates in coming months.
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (October).
United States: ADP non-farm employment (October)
United States: Q3 GDP (first reading). Analysts forecast a further slowdown to 1.7% qoq annualised from 2.0% in Q2.
United States: Federal Reserve policy meeting and statement. Markets are pricing in a 25bp rate cut and analysts concur. The focus will be on whether the Fed hints at a fourth and final rate cut before year-end.
Thursday 31st October
Australia: Building approvals and private sector credit (October)
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (October, preliminary data). Analysts forecast that headline and core CPI-inflation remained unchanged and weak at respectively 0.8% yoy and 1.0% yoy.
Eurozone: GDP (Q3, preliminary data). Analysts forecast that Eurozone growth halved again in Q3 to just 0.1% qoq from 0.2% qoq in Q2 and 0.4% qoq in Q1 – i.e. just shy of a technical recession. While the ECB under Draghi kept the Euro very stable it has arguably failed to reflate the Eurozone economy.
Eurozone: ECB President Mario Draghi officially steps down, to be replaced by former IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde.
United Kingdom: The Speaker of the lower house of parliament, John Bercow, steps down. His replacement has yet to be confirmed. Bercow has been a divisive figure in the House of Commons, with Brexiters accusing him of favouring a pro-remain agenda.
United States: Personal income, spending and prices (September). US data on wages and consumer confidence suggest that consumer spending growth slowed further in September, which will have weighed on overall US GDP growth. Core PCE-inflation, one of the key measures of inflation tracked by the Federal Reserve, was only 0.1% mom in August and analysts don’t expect much of a bounce in September.
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan to speak
Friday 1st November
Switzerland: Retail sales and CPI-inflation (September)
United Kingdom: Manufacturing PMI (October). One of the first UK macro data points for early Q4
United States: Labour market data (October). September figures were on the soft-side, with the non-farm payrolls rising by only 136,000 and hourly wage growth slowing to 2.9% yoy.
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (October).
United States: FOMC members Clarida, Quarles, Williams to speak.
