The macro and event calendar is light today and on Friday (US holiday) but heavy in between. The US is due to release June data for consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing and of course the labour market. In the Eurozone the focus will be on CPI-inflation figures (Tuesday) and possible announcement regarding travel to and from the EU. Switzerland has retail sales, KOF leading indicator and CPI-inflation figures to keep markets interested.
Monday 29th June
United States: Pending home sales (May).
Tuesday 30th June
Australia: Private sector credit (May)
United KingdTom: Q1 GDP (second reading). GDP contracted 2.0% qoq in Q1, according to the first reading. Market focus has arguably turned to Q2 data which are expected to show a far larger contraction in UK GDP.
Switzerland: Retail sales (May).
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator (June). This leading indicator of Swiss economic growth fell to an all-time low in May (53.2) but this has not stopped the safe-haven Swiss Franc from outperforming. Consensus forecast is that KOF index rebounded to 77 in June.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation, June (preliminary data). Inflationary pressures in the Eurozone have been and are expected to remain very weak.
United States: Conference Board consumer confidence index (June). Consumer confidence is key to the US economic recovery narrative. The index was depressed but stable in May (at 86.6) and is expected to have rebounded to 91.7 in June.
Wednesday 1st July
European Union: EU member states are due to confirm that citizens in up 15 countries will be allowed to travel again to the 28 EU member states as of 1st July. The preliminary list excludes the US but includes Canada, Japan and may include China.
Eurozone: German retail sales (May) and labour market data (June).
United States: ADP private sector employment (June). The private sector lost 2.76 million jobs in May, according to ADP, but analysts forecast that this was more than reversed in June (3 million jobs created).
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (June). The consensus forecast is that the modest rebound in this index of US manufacturing activity recorded in May (to 43.1 from 41.5 in April) was far larger in June (+49.4).
United States: Minutes of Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Thursday 2nd July
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (June).
United States: Labour market data (June). The consensus view is that the US economy once again created jobs in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 12.3% from 13.3% in May but that hourly wages continued to contract.
United States: Goods & services trade data (May).
Friday 3rd July
United States: Public and market holiday
Australia: Retail sales and external trade data (May).
