While there are few central bank policy meetings scheduled this week it’s an important for US macro data, with consumer confidence, ISM manufacturing and labour market figures for March due for release. In the Eurozone and Switzerland the focus is likely to be on CPI-inflation data. In Australia, private sector credit, retail sales and external trade data for February are the highlights.
Monday 29th March
United Kingdom: Bank of England consumer credit and cash deposit data (February). These data have historically flown under markets’ radar screen but have gained prominence in recent months given the question of whether, when and how quickly households and corporates will spend the vast amounts ofg cash they have deposited with commercial banks in the past year.
Tuesday 30th March
Switzerland: KOF leading indicator index (March).
United States: Conference Board Consumer Confidence index (March). The index has oscillated in a reasonably narrow range of 85.7-101.4 since April 2020. However it rose slightly in the past two months and is expected to have jumped to 97.0 in March from 91.3 in February thanks in part to the government’s stimulative fiscal and income policies. US consumer confidence is key to underlying household demand and ultimately headline GDP growth.
Wednesday 31st March
Australia: Private sector credit (February).
United Kingdom: Q4 GDP (third reading). GDP growth (seasonally-adjusted) slowed to 1.0% qoq in Q4 2020 according to the second reading.
Eurozone: German labour market data (February).
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (March, preliminary data). Core and headline CPI-inflation remained subdued in February at respectively 1.1% yoy and 0.9% yoy. Headline CPI-inflation may hay have risen slightly in March, due to rise in international food/commodity prices, but this is unlikely to reverse the European Central Bank’s currently very dovish monetary policy stance.
United States: ADP employment (March). These unofficial figures, a precursor to Friday’s official labour market data release, are expected to show a material rise in private sector employment of 525,000 in March.
Thursday 1st April
Australia: External trade data (February).
Australia: Retail sales (February).
Switzerland: Retail sales (February).
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (February).
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 1st April).
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (March). This index of economic activity has been trending higher since its April collapse and the consensus forecast is that it rose further in March 2021 to a decade-high of 61.3.
Friday 2nd April
United States, UK, European Union, Australia and New Zealand: Public holiday (Good Friday).
United States: Labour market data (March). The consensus forecast that the US economy (excluding the farming sector) created “only” 182,000 jobs in March is somewhat at odds with the far more bullish ADP consensus forecast.
