It’s another big week for the US, with key macro data – including ISM PMI and labour market figures for July – this time under the spotlight. On the policy front both the RBA and Bank of England hold meetings this week, with the focus likely to fall on their respective QE programs. The macro data release calendars are reasonably light in the Eurozone and UK.
Monday 2nd August
Eurozone: German retail sales (June). Retail sales rose by 2.0% mom, twice as fast as expected.
Switzerland: Retail sales (June).
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (June). Headline CPI-inflation rose 0.7% yoy, in line with expectations. The pace of inflation rose only marginally from 0.6% yoy in May.
United States: ISM manufacturing PMI (July). This index of economic activity in the US manufacturing sector was broadly unchanged in May and June is expected to have risen only marginally in July to 60.9 (from 60.6 in June).
Tuesday 3rd August
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The consensus forecast is that the RBA will leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.10% but that, as result of regional lockdowns weighing on economic growth, it will reverse its decision (announced in July) to cut weekly asset purchases to AUD 4bn from AUD 5bn.
Switzerland: External trade balance (June).
United States: FOMC member Bowman to speak.
New Zealand: Labour market data (Q2).
Wednesday 4th August
Eurozone: Retail sales (June).
United States: ADP labour market data (July). The consensus forecast is that according to this unofficial measure US private sector employment rose by 700,000 in July, following an increase of 692,000 in June.
United States: FOMC member Clarida to speak.
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (June). This index of economic activity in the key service sector fell sharply in June to 60.1 (from 64.0 in May) and is expected to have risen only marginally in July to 60.4 in July.
Thursday 5th August
Australia: External trade data (June)
United Kingdom: Bank of England Monetary Policy Council meeting. All eight MPC members are likely to vote in favour of keeping the policy rate unchanged at 0.10%. However a few MPC members could vote in favour of the Bank of England cutting short its QE program.
United States: Goods and services trade data (June).
United States: FOMC member Waller to speak.
Friday 6th August
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe to speak.
Eurozone: German industrial output (June).
United Kingdom: Bank of England Monetary Policy Council member Broadbent to speak.
United States: Labour market data (July). Given Fed Chairperson Powell’s remarks last week about the US labour market there will be much focus on this release, and in particular the headline change in non-farm employment. The consensus forecast is that the US economy created 900,000 jobs in July (a 10-month high) and that the unemployment rate fell to 5.7% from 5.9% in June.
