The data calendar is light today but picks up steam tomorrow and the rest of the week. In the US the focus as always will be on labour market releases on Wednesday (private sector) and Friday (economy-wide) as well as the ISM PMI for the services sector and trade data for December. Moreover, US housing market figures have recently been getting more attention than usual.
The events and data calendar is also very heavy in Australia – the RBA holds its policy meeting tomorrow, ahead of key figures for Q4 GDP and retail sales and external trade for January.
The macro data calendars are reasonably light in the Eurozone, Switzerland and UK. However, the ECB policy meeting could prove pivotal, SNB board member Zurbrugg is due to speak tomorrow while in the UK MPC members Cunliffe, Saunders and Tenreyro may provide further guidance on policy rates in the context of Brexit.
Monday 4th March
Australia: Building approvals (January)
Tuesday 5th March
United Kingdom: BRC retail sales monitor (February)
Australia: Current account balance (Q4)
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting and statement. The RBA will likely keep its policy rate unchanged with markets likely to instead focus on whether the RBA is tilting towards the next move being a rate hike or a cut.
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (February). Headline CPI-inflation slowed to a one-year low of 0.6% yoy in January, partly as a result of slowing Swiss economic growth, and analysts expect this figure to have been broadly unchanged in February.
Switzerland: Swiss National Bank board member Zurbrugg to speak. The SNB will likely continue to take its cue mostly from the ECB but Zurbrugg may flag the ongoing weakness of the Swiss economy.
Eurozone: Retail sales (January). This is typically a volatile series and indeed analysts expect a decent 1.2% mom rebound following a 1.6% mom contraction in December.
United States: FOMC Member Rosengren, Kashkari and Barkin to speak
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (February). Analysts forecast an uptick in this measure of economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector from 56.7 in January – a six month low – to 57.4 in February but note that the ISM manufacturing PMI surprised on the downside in February.
United States: New home sales (December)
Wednesday 6th March
Australia: GDP (Q4). Australian GDP growth has remained in positive territory in quarter-on-quarter terms for the past 26 years and analysts forecast that growth accelerated to 0.5% qoq in Q4 from 0.3% qoq in Q3. While the risk may be to the downside, growth in Australia likely remained solid compared to many other developed economies.
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC members Cunliffe and Saunders to speak. The Monetary Policy Council is likely to keep rates on hold until there is far greater clarity on the Brexit front but MPC members may use this opportunity to flesh out the MPC’s options based on the outcome of key parliamentary votes due in mid-March.
United States: ADP private-sector non-farm employment (February). This precursor to the official labour market data release shows that the US economy has on average created over 215,000 private sector jobs per month since October 2017. Analysts forecast a slightly below-average increase of 190,000 in February.
United States: Exports and imports of goods and services (December). The goods trade deficit hit an all-time high of $79.5bn in December (according to preliminary data) as a result of both lower exports and higher imports. This gaping deficit is likely to keep President Trump on the offensive in terms of trying to negotiate better trading conditions with key partners, including China.
United States: FOMC members Mester and Williams to speak
Thursday 7th March
Australia: Exports and imports of goods and services (January)
Australia: Retail sales (January). Retail sales rose eleven consecutive months until a 0.4% mom contraction in December and the expectation is that retail sales rebounded 0.3% mom in January. Despite stresses in the Australian housing market consumer spending has remained reasonably buoyant so far thanks in part to a sturdy labour market.
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (February). The Swiss unemployment rate is one of the lowest in the world at 2.8% but it has inched up from 2.4% in October.
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC member Tenreyro to speak
Eurozone: ECB policy meeting and press conference. The ECB will likely keep its policy rate unchanged but a number of board members have in recent weeks suggested that the ECB could soon re-launch its offer of long-term loans to banks. The ECB could announce this policy step at its meeting and markets will also be looking for signs that the ECB is at least contemplating the possibility of pushing out its tentative plan to start hiking rates after the summer.
Friday 8th March
United States: Building permits and housing starts (January)
United States: Labour market data (February). The US economy has continued to create jobs at an impressive rate, with over 600,000 jobs created in December 2018 and January 2019 alone. But analysts predict that a more modest 185,000 jobs were created in the US economy (excluding farming) in February. Moreover, average hourly earnings growth has only slowly increased to 3.2% yoy.
Eurozone: ECB board member Mersch to speak
