On the data front, the focus this week will be on services PMI data for October out of the US and UK. The US, Germany and Australia will also release trade data while Australia, the UK and Eurozone will publish retail sales figures, providing a clearer picture for external and domestic demand. The RBA and Bank of England hold policy meetings with both expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.75%.
Monday 4th November
Australia: Retail sales (September). A volatile monthly series but retail sales have risen 0.9% in the past three months and analysts forecast a 0.5% mom increase in September.
Tuesday 5th November
United Kingdom: British Retail Consortium (BRC) retail sales Monitor (October). Retail sales were flat in September despite a 0.3% mom contraction in August, with household demand seemingly weighed down by Brexit-related uncertainty.
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. RBA Governor Lowe has talked down the need for another RBA policy rate cut and analysts indeed forecast that the RBA will leave rates on hold at 0.75%. However, markets are still pricing in a 25bp rate for Q1 2020 so the question is whether the RBA tries to further quell market expectations of RBA easing.
United Kingdom: Services and composite PMI (October). The manufacturing PMI surprised on the upside in October, rising to 49.6 from 48.3 in September so the composite PMI may well have edged higher from 49.3 in September.
United States: Goods and services trade data (September). The US trade deficit has if anything widened slightly in the past three years, hitting $54.9bn in August. US President Trump is unlikely to waver in his goal of cubing the United States’ trade deficit, particularly with its largest trade partners (including China and the EU).
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (October). The manufacturing PMI surprised on the downside in October, rising to only 48.3 from a multi-year low of 47.8 – a poor start to Q3.
New Zealand: Labour market data (Q3).
Wednesday 6th November
Eurozone: Retail sales (September).
United States: FOMC members Harker, Williams and Evans to speak. These speeches will give a first inclining on whether members of the Federal Reserve have any appetite for a fourth policy rate cut before year-end.
Thursday 7th November
Australia: Trade data (September)
Eurozone: German industrial output (September).
United States: FOMC members Kaplan and Bostic to speak
United Kingdom: Bank of England policy meeting, minutes and press conference. The Bank of England has arguably played second fiddle to Brexit-related developments and analysts expect the MPC to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.75%, with no voting dissents. Its quarterly inflation report is also due for release, with a focus on any major revisions to economic growth and inflation forecasts.
Friday 8th November
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (October)
Eurozone: German trade data (September)
