It’s a reasonably light week on the data front, although the US and UK are due to release important services PMI data for July, with UK GDP data for Q2 also due out on Friday.
The RBA and RBNZ hold policy meetings on respectively Tuesday and Wednesday. While the RBA is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates 25bp to 1.25%.
Monday 5th August
United Kingdom: Services PMI (July). Analysts forecast only a modest rebound in this key measure of economic activity in the services sector to 50.4 from 50.2 in June. If correct, this would suggest that GDP growth remained very weak in early Q3.
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (July).
New Zealand: Labour market data (Q2). It would take an extraordinarily strong set of data to significantly alter markets’ pricing of a 99% probability of a 25bp rate cut at Wednesday’s RBNZ policy meeting.
Tuesday 6th August
Australia: Trade data (June)
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The RBA cut rates 25bp at each of its previous two meetings to 1.00% but is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged in August given decent employment data and the loosening of monetary policy via a weakening Australian Dollar.
Wednesday 7th August
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting and statement. Analysts forecast another 25bp rate cut, in line with market expectations, to 1.25%.
Eurozone: German industrial output (June). A typically volatile data series, with analysts forecasting a 0.6% mom contraction following a 0.3% mom rebound in May.
Thursday 8th August
United Kingdom: RICS house price balance (July)
Friday 9th August
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting statement
Switzerland: Labour market data (June). These data are likely to play second fiddle to capital inflows into the safe-haven Swiss Franc in the context of global risk aversion.
Eurozone: German trade balance (June).
United Kingdom: GDP (Q2, first reading). Analysts and the Bank of England forecast that GDP growth slowed to zero in Q2 from 0.5% qoq in Q1, which would give credibility to the BoE’s downwardly revised forecast of just 1.3% growth in 2019.
