The macro data calendar is lighter this week. The focus in the US is likely to again be on initial jobless claims figures (for week of 9th April) rather than CPI-inflation in March. In the UK February GDP data are due for release while German industrial output and trade numbers will help paint a picture of the Eurozone’s largest economy. On the policy front the RBA holds its scheduled meeting on Tuesday while the Federal Reserve and ECB will publish the minutes of their latest policy meetings.
Monday 6th April
Chinese public and market holiday. No tier-one data releases scheduled
Tuesday 7th April
Australia: Trade data (February). May give a sense to which extent Australian exports and imports were impacted by the Australian wildfires but unlikely to fully reflect the impact of the coronavirus.
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA has already cut its policy rate to a record-low of 25bp and is engaging in quantitative easing for the first time ever. Analysts expect few policy changes at this scheduled meeting although the RBA may announce tweaks to its QE program.
Eurozone: German industrial output (February).
Wednesday 8th April
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (March). The consensus forecast is for an increase to a still very low 2.8% from 2.5% in February.
United States: Federal Reserve to publish minutes of its latest policy meeting.
Thursday 9th April
United Kingdom: GDP (February). GDP was flat in January and may well have already contracted in February. This would imply, assuming no revisions to previous data, that year-on-year GDP growth in the UK slowed from an already meagre 0.6% in January and may have turned negative in February for the first time in a decade.
Eurozone: German trade data (February).
Eurozone: European Central Bank to release minutes of its 12th March policy meeting.
United States: Initial jobless claims (week of 9th April). The two previous data releases pointed to huge stress in the US labour market and this release will arguably garner much attention.
Friday 10th April
Public holiday in US, Europe, Australia and New Zealand
United States: CPI-inflation (March). Analysts forecast that headline CPI-inflation slowed to 1.6% yoy from 2.3% yoy in February but perhaps more importantly that core CPI-inflation was broadly unchanged around 2.3% yoy. Measures of US inflation are unlikely for now to have much impact on Federal Reserve monetary policy.
