After two weeks of relatively few tier-one macro data releases over the festive period, the data calendar is once again heavy.
In the US, the focus will be on December ISM non-manufacturing PMI figures (Tuesday) and labour market numbers (Friday).
Australia releases building approvals, trade balance and retail sales figures for November – which may have already been impacted by wildfires in Australia.
Switzerland has a number of key releases, including CPI-inflation, retail sales and labour market data.
The data release calendars are light in the UK and Eurozone but the ECB is due to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting.
Monday 6th January
Eurozone and United Kingdom: Composite PMIs (December, final data).
Tuesday 7th January
Switzerland: CPI-inflation (December). Year-on-year headline CPI-inflation has been in negative territory for the past two months and analysts forecast that it remained unchanged at -0.1% in December.
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (December). Headline CPI-inflation rebounded to 1.0% yoy in November and analysts forecast a further rise to 1.3% yoy in December. But they forecast that the more relevant core CPI-inflation measure remained unchanged at 1.3% yoy, which if correct will keep the ECB under pressure to stimulate inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone.
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (December). While the US manufacturing sector has been losing steam for the past 14 months, the US services sector has held up far better and driven headline GDP growth. Analysts forecast that the non-manufacturing PMI rebounded to 54.5 in December from 53.9 in November.
Wednesday 8th January
Australia: Building approvals (November).
United States: ADP non-farm labour market data (December). This non-official measure of the change in private-sector employment in the US has been on a downtrend for the past 4 months and almost halved in November to just +67,000. However, analysts forecast a sharp rebound to +156,000 in December.
Thursday 9th January
United Kingdom: British Retail Consortium retail sales monitor (December). UK retail sales were very weak in November and the question is whether they picked up before and after the 12th December UK general election and the festive season.
Australia: Trade balance (November). The trade surplus, which had been rising rapidly since early 2018, fell sharply in October to AUD 4.5bn from AUD 7.2bn in September. Analysts forecast a further narrowing to AUD 4.1bn in November and widespread fires in Australia may have further weighed on external trade in December.
Switzerland: Retail sales (November). This is a volatile data series but overall Swiss retail sales growth remains weak.
Eurozone: European Central Bank minutes of policy meeting.
Friday 10th January
Australia: Retail sales (November). Retail sales growth slowed in September and October but analysts forecast a rebound to 0.4% mom in November. There is little doubt that the wildfires in Australia, which had gathered in amplitude in recent weeks, will have impacted household consumption in Australia.
Switzerland: Labour market data (December).
United States: Labour market data (December). The US labour market has remained solid overall, with some pockets of weakness in the manufacturing sector. Analysts forecast that the much-focussed-on non-farm payrolls print will come in at 160,000, down from 266,000 in November. However, history suggests that unless this (volatile) number is dramatically weak or strong markets tend to quickly shift their focus.
