The macro data and event calendar is very light this week with the fluid evolution of covid-19 cases and deaths across the world likely to remain centre-stage. However, today’s US non-manufacturing PMI data for June will provide an insight into the performance of the critical service sector and the RBA holds its policy meeting tomorrow. The Eurozone is due to release some data for the month of May (including in Germany) but markets may well now regard these figures as “old”.
Monday 6th July
Eurozone: Retail sales (May)
United States: ISM non-manufacturing (June). The consensus forecast is that this leading indicator index for the key US service sector rose for a second month, to 50.0 in June from 45.4 in May. An index of 50 would indicate that economic activity was neither slowing nor picking up, a vast improvement from 41.8 in April.
Tuesday 7th June
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The policy rate will likely remain on hold at a record-low of 0.25%. There will be focus on the extent to which the RBA is planning for a slower economic recovery in the event of the localised spikes in covid-19 cases becoming more widespread and forcing a tightening of nationwide lockdown rules.
Eurozone: German industrial output (May).
United States: FOMC members Quarles, Barkin and Daly to speak.
Wednesday 8th July
Switzerland: Labour market data (June).
Eurozone: ECB Board member de Guindos to speak
Thursday 9th July
Eurozone: German trade data (May).
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 9th July). The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time has been falling since the record-high of 6.9 million in the week to 2nd April and is expected to have fallen further in the week to 9th July to below 1.4 million.
Friday 10th July
No tier one macro data releases scheduled.
