The focus this week is likely to be on the re-start of US-China trade negotiations, speeches by Fed Chairperson Powell and the EU’s response to the British Prime Minister Johnson’s new Brexit deal. The data release calendar is pretty light, with two notable exceptions: US CPI-inflation for September and UK monthly GDP figures for August.
Monday 7th October
Australia: National Holiday
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell and FOMC member Kashkari to speak. Powell spoke on Friday so his three scheduled speeches this week may not materially move markets.
Tuesday 8th October
United Kingdom: BRC retail sales monitor (September). There was a time when this unofficial release of retail sales data by the British Retail Consortium would get a lot of attention given its timing ahead of official data but in more recent times it has been swamped out by all things Brexit.
Australia: NAB business confidence index (September)
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (September)
Eurozone: German industrial output (August). Industrial output in the Eurozone’s largest economy has shrunk 3.5% since March and unsurprisingly given weak PMI data analysts forecast a further 0.3% mom contraction in output in August. It is conceivable that the German economy, which contracted in Q2, was in recession in Q3.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell to speak.
Wednesday 9th October
United States: Minutes of Federal Reserve’s 18th September policy meeting. The release of these meeting minutes is likely to confirm that FOMC members were divided as to whether the Fed should cut rates by 25bp (which it did, as expected) and whether to cut, hike or leave rates unchanged going forward.
Thursday 10th October
Australia: Home loans (August)
Eurozone: German international trade data (August).
United Kingdom: Monthly GDP (August). GDP rose 0.3% mom in July, following a 0.2% qoq contraction in Q2, alleviating fears that the UK economy may have gone into recession in Q3.
United States: CPI-inflation (September). Core CPI-inflation rose to a 12-month high of 2.4% yoy in August but this did not stop the Fed from cutting rates 25bp at its September meeting. Analysts expect an unchanged inflation figure for September.
United States: FOMC members Mester and Kashkari to speak
Friday 11th October
European Union: The EU will reportedly give a decision with regards British Prime Minister Johnson’s new Brexit deal proposals although an official response is more likely at the European Council Summit on 17-18 October.
United States: FOMC Kaplan, Rosengren and Kashkari to speak
