The data and event calendar is light this week with the exception of Wednesday, with a number of possibly market-moving scheduled policy events and data releases. In Australia, RBA Assistant Governor Debelle is due to speak, the US releases March inflation data as well as the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting, the ECB holds its policy meeting and the EU will decide on whether to grant the UK an extension to Article 50. Friday 12th April is the legal default date for the UK to exit the EU.
Monday 8th April
Germany: Trade balance (February). The trade surplus was broadly unchanged from January at €8.7bn but this was due to a contraction in both exports and imports of 1.3% mom and 1.6% mom, respectively.
Tuesday 9th April
Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment (April)
Australia: Home loans (February)
United States: FOMC member Clarida to speak. Clarida is a member of the Board of Governors and thus is a voting member at policy meetings. He is regarded as broadly neutral on the “dove-hawk” spectrum.
Wednesday 10th April
United Kingdom: BRC Retail Sales Monitor (March). This front-runner to the official retail sales data release usually exhibits significant monthly volatility.
Australia: RBA Assistant Governor Debelle to speak. Debelle may provide some colour as to whether the market’s pricing of 23bp of rate cuts for the next 12 months is commensurate with the RBA’s current thinking about the risks of the central bank having to cut its policy rate in the coming year.
United Kingdom: Monthly GDP (February). GDP growth recovered sharply in January, to +0.5% mom, following a 0.4% mom contraction in December. However, the Office of National Statistics notes that this monthly series is volatile and should thus be used with caution. GDP growth in the three months to January 2019 was unchanged from Q4 2018 at a still weak 0.2% qoq.
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting, statement and press conference. With policy rates very likely to remain on hold, focus will be on whether and how President Draghi deals with reports that the ECB may consider introducing tiered deposit rates on commercial banks’ excess cash reserves (which would in effect reduce banks’ payments to the ECB).
European Union: The European Council of 27 EU member states will hold a special summit to decide whether or not to accept British Prime Minister May’s demand to extend Article 50 until 30th June and under what conditions. There have been reports that European Council President Donald Tusk would prefer to grant the UK a 12-month rolling extension.
United States: CPI-inflation (March). Core CPI-inflation has been unchanged at 2.1-2.2% yoy for the past seven months, which has in turn helped underpin the Federal Reserve’s seemingly neutral monetary policy stance. It would likely take a large rise or fall in US inflation to alter the Fed’s current “wait-and-see” approach to its key policy rate.
United States: Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged, as widely expected, and FOMC members have in recent weeks been broadly united in their view that there is little compelling evidence at this stage to either cut or hike rates, that the Fed remains patient and very much data-dependent.
Thursday 11th April
Germany: CPI-inflation (March). This data release for the Eurozone’s largest economy may have less significance for markets as the Eurozone has already released preliminary data showing that core and headline CPI-inflation fell to, respectively, 1.0% yoy (a 25-month low) and 1.4% yoy (joint 11-month low) in March. The ongoing downturn in Eurozone inflation contributed to the ECB’s recent announcement that it would likely keep its policy rates unchanged this year.
Friday 12th April
Eurozone: Industrial output (February)
United Kingdom: Legal default date by which the UK would exit the EU. Should parliament fail to approve with a majority Prime Minister May’s draft Brexit deal or an alternative deal by this date or should the EU refuse to grant the British government an extension to Article 50, the UK would formally leave the EU without a deal on 12th April.
