The macro data and event calendar is very light this week although US CPI-inflation (for January) and UK GDP numbers (for December) will likely attract some attention.
Monday 8th February
New Zealand: Public holiday
Switzerland: Labour market data (January). The (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate was stable at 3.5%.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Bailey to speak. The MPC set out its outlook for the UK economy at its meeting but Bailey may delve further into the risks to its forecasts and the issue of negative policy rates.
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Lagarde to speak.
Tuesday 9th February
Australia: NAB Business Confidence index (January).
Eurozone: German external trade data (December).
Wednesday 10th February
United States: CPI-inflation (January). The consensus forecast is that both core and headline CPI-inflation were broadly unchanged in January from 1.6% yoy and 1.4% yoy in December. If correct this data release would likely further cement the Federal Reserve’s arguably dovish monetary policy stance.
Thursday 11th February
United States: Initial jobless claims (week ending 11th February).
United States: Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Report. This report on “the conduct of monetary policy and economic developments and prospects for the future” is submitted semi-annually to Congress.
Friday 12th February
United Kingdom: GDP (December and Q4). GDP contracted 2.6% mom in November and is unlikely to have rebounded strongly in December given that the UK was in lockdown throughout most of the month. The consensus forecast is that GDP growth slowed to just +0.5% qoq in Q4 from a record +16.0% qoq in Q3 which would imply growth of about +0.7% mom in the last month of the year.
