The data and event calendar is reasonably heavy this week, particularly for the UK with industrial output and trade data for May and the June BRC retail sales index. Bank of England Governor Carney and MPC member Cunliffe are also due to speak. In the US the focus will be on June CPI-inflation data out on 12th July and a slew of speeches by FOMC members.
In the Eurozone, there are few data points for markets to focus on (bar industrial output and German ZEW economic sentiment) but European Central Bank President Draghi and a number of board members are due to speak and they may well provide further guidance as to the ECB’s rate hiking cycle going forward. Moreover, Eurozone member states will be discussing the future of the monetary union and interim forecasts for the Eurozone economy.
Monday 9th July
Eurozone: European Central Bank Board Member Praet and President Draghi speak
United States: FOMC member Kashkari speaks
Tuesday 10th July
United Kingdom: British Retail Consortium (BRC) retail sales index (June).
United Kingdom: Industrial output and trade balance (May). Manufacturing PMI data point to a slight rebound in industrial output in May following a 0.8% mom contraction in April. The trade deficit has not narrowed much in the past two years despite a significant gain in Sterling competitiveness and analysts expect only moderate contraction in the deficit in May to £12bn from £14bn in April.
Germany: ZEW Economic Sentiment (July). Economic sentiment has progressively deteriorated this year and analysts expect a further deterioration in the ZEW index to -17.9 from -16.1 in June.
United Kingdom: NIESR estimate of Q2 GDP. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research is expected to announce an estimate of 0.3% qoq GDP growth, up slightly from its previous estimate of 0.2% and actual growth of 0.2% qoq in Q1 2018. This would be in line with recent macro data pointing to a slight improvement in growth in the second quarter and could be enough to support a Bank of England rate hike at its August policy meeting.
Eurozone: European Central Bank board member Angeloni and Lautenschlaeger to speak.
Wednesday 11th July
Australia: Westpac Consumer Sentiment (July)
Eurozone: European Central Bank Board Members Praet and Mersch and President Draghi speak
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney speaks
United States: FOMC member William speaks
Thursday 12th July
United Kingdom: RICS housing price balance (June)
Eurozone: Industrial output (May)
Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting (Eurogroup is informal body including the ministers of the Eurozone member states). On the agenda is the outcome of the June Euro Summit and discussions about the future of the monetary union and interim economic forecasts for the Eurozone.
Eurozone: European Central Bank publishes minutes of June policy meeting
United States: CPI-inflation (June). Core and in particular CPI-inflation Headline rose in May (to 2.2% yoy and 2.8% yoy respectively). Another increase in June would likely be a necessary if not sufficient conditions for markets to keep on pricing in the possibility of two further rate hikes before year-end and for the Dollar to remain supported.
United States: FOMC members Kashkari and Harker speak
Friday 13th July
United States: FOMC members Kashkari speaks
United Kingdom: MPC member Cunliffe speak
United States: Labour market data (June)
United States: FOMC member Bostic speaks
