The highlight this week will probably be US consumer and producer price inflation data for March, while scheduled speeches from Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England policy makers may also get some attention. The data calendar for Australia and New Zealand is reasonably light.
Monday 9th April
Germany: February export and imports. German business and consumer confidence has fallen in recent months, albeit from high levels, and markets will be gauging whether this has translated to trade data in the Eurozone’s powerhouse.
United Kingdom: March Halifax house prices. UK house prices have been flat-lining since last summer, held back by falling house prices in London. These numbers may not directly influence the Monetary Policy Council’s interest rate path near-term with markets still expecting a 25bp rate in May. But signs that the British property market is running into headwinds may at the margin reduce the probability of a second rate hike later this year.
Tuesday 10th April
United Kingdom: Monetary Policy Council (MPC) member Haldane Speaks. He is viewed as broadly neutral on the MPC.
United States: March Producer Price Inflation. While the consumer price data out on Wednesday are likely to get more attention, the rise in PPI-inflation this year to 2.8% year-on-year appears to be slowing filtering through to consumer prices.
Wednesday 11th April
United Kingdom: March industrial output. Industry accounts for less than 20% of the UK’s GDP so these numbers are not critical but will at the margin help ascertain whether GDP growth managed to rise in Q1 2018 from a modest 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2017.
Eurozone: European Central Bank (ECB) President Draghi speaks. The ECB has been reluctant to discuss the scope for rate hikes next year given still weak Eurozone inflation and Draghi is unlikely to commit to a more clear-cut path for interest rates. Markets are likely to focus on whether Draghi refers, as the ECB has done many times in the past, to the Euro’s volatility which has been taken as code for Euro strength despite the common currency having traded in a very narrow range year-to-date.
United States: March consumer price inflation. CPI-inflation has been stuck in a 1.7-2.5% year-on-year range in the past 16 months and the consensus forecast is that it rose back to the top end of this range (2.4% yoy) in March. Only a break-out from this range would likely inch up market expectations that the Federal Reserve could hike four (not three) times this year.
United States: Minutes of the 21st March Federal Reserve Policy meeting. The Fed hiked rates 25bp at this meeting, in line with expectations, and analysts and markets generally took a dovish view of the accompanying forecast updates. The question is whether the minutes back the market’s view that the Fed will hike only two more times this year. If the tone of the minutes is more hawkish and points to possibly three more hikes before end-2018, US rates and the Dollar could get choppy.
North Korea: The Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) will gather in Pyongyang on 11th April and there are expectations that it will rubber stamp crucial meetings between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with his South Korean counterpart in late-April and with US President Donald Trump in May.
Thursday 12th April
United Kingdom: MPC member Broadbent and Bank of England Governor Carney speak
United States: FOMC member Kashkari speaks
Friday 13th April
United States: FOMC members Rosengren, Bullard and Kaplan speak
