The macro data calendar is relatively light this week, with the exception of UK GDP figures for January and US CPI-inflation numbers in February, both due out on Wednesday. In any case markets are likely to discount broadly-in-range data with their focus firmly on coronavirus-related government and central bank measures. With this mind, the UK’s budget announcement on 11th March and ECB’s policy meeting on 12th March have the power to move markets, even if temporarily.
Monday 9th March
Switzerland: Unemployment rate (February)
Eurozone: German external trade and industrial output (January)
Tuesday 10th March
United Kingdom: British Retail Consortium (BRC) retail sales monitor (February). Markets will be looking for signs that the coronavirus epidemic may have started to impact consumer sentiment and demand but the wet weather in February (wettest in 160 years) may have been a more important factor.
Australia: NAB business confidence index (February)
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Debelle to speak. The RBA cut its policy rate 25bp to 0.50% on 3rd March and markets will be looking for signs as to whether and when it may cut rates again.
Wednesday 11th March
United Kingdom: GDP (January). GDP growth rebounded to 0.3% mom in December but this was only enough to keep GDP flat in Q4. The consensus forecast is for GDP growth of 0.2% mom in January.
United Kingdom: Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak to announce UK’s budget for fiscal year 2020-2021. Sunak only recently replaced Sajid Javid and will have had little time to modify the government’s planned budget in order to accommodate the impact of the coronavirus on the UK’s economy and finances. He will reportedly confirm that long-term investment plans have been postponed and that the Treasury will adopt more flexible fiscal rules in the face of exceptional circumstances.
United States: CPI-inflation (February). Headline CPI-inflation rose to a 13-molnth high of 2.5% yoy in January but the arguably more telling measure of core CPI-inflation has been more stable around 2.3% yoy since September. Analysts forecast the latter to have remained unchanged in February. Ultimately inflation metrics are not driving US monetary policy at this juncture.
Thursday 12th March
Eurozone: Industrial output (January)
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting, statement and press conference. Market expectations have risen in recent weeks that the ECB will at the very least announce a 10bp cut to its deposit rate to
-0.60%, in the face of the mounting impact of the coronavirus on European economic activity.
Friday 13th March
No tier-one macro data releases scheduled