In the US, market focus will likely centre on a speech by Fed Chairperson Powell on Thursday, non-manufacturing PMI figures for January and the (delayed) release of durable goods and trade data for November.
Central banks in Australia and the UK hold their policy meetings this week with the former likely to be far more interesting as Brexit-related issues are likely to dominate the UK landscape. It is also a heavy data-week in Australia with the release of international trade and domestic retail sales numbers for December. In the UK, the key releases are the service sector PMI for January and preliminary Q4 GDP.
The data calendar is reasonably light in the Eurozone, Switzerland and New Zealand
Monday 4th February
United States: Durable goods orders (November)
Tuesday 5th February
Australia: Trade balance (December)
Australia: Retail sales (December)
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting. The RBA’s message was pretty consistent throughout 2018, namely that there were few compelling reasons to even consider moving the needle on monetary policy. We would expect the RBA in its first meeting of 2019 to reaffirm its stance that a hike (or cut) in the policy rate is nowhere near imminent.
United Kingdom: BRC retail sales monitor (January)
United Kingdom: Services PMI (January)
Eurozone: Retail sales (December)
United States: FOMC Member Mester to speak
United States: ISM non-manufacturing PMI (January). After the decent rebound in the manufacturing PMI, analysts and markets may well have revised their expectations to the upside
Wednesday 6th February
New Zealand: Labour data (Q4)
United States: Building permits (December). The US housing market has been under pressure in recent months but the double-digit rebound in new home sales in November is noteworthy.
United States: Trade in goods and services (November)
United States: FOMC Member Quarles to speak
Thursday 7th February
United Kingdom: Bank of England policy meeting. These meetings have to some extent become redundant as the MPC is very unlikely to even consider hiking (or cutting) the policy rate (from 0.75%) until there is greater clarity on the Brexit front.
United States: Federal Reserve Chairperson Powell and FOMC Member Clarida to speak.
Friday 8th February
Switzerland: Labour market data (December)
United Kingdom: Q4 GDP (preliminary estimate). Consensus forecast is that GDP growth slowed from a respectable 0.6% qoq in Q3 although there is some debate as to the magnitude of the slowdown.
United Kingdom: Industrial output, trade balance (December)
