The data and events calendar is relatively light, with the exception of the US – which is due to release durable goods orders and trade balance data, housing market numbers and the all-important Q3 GDP estimate – and the Eurozone. The ECB holds its monthly policy meeting and preliminary Eurozone PMI data for October are also scheduled for release while Germany will publish the closely-tracked IFO business climate index. There are few data releases of note in the UK but Bank of England Governor Carney is due to speak and Brexit will undoubtedly continue to hog the headlines.
Monday 22nd October
Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Debelle Speaks. Markets currently don’t expect the next RBA rate hike until late into next year and it is not clear that Debelle has new information which will materially change those expectations.
Tuesday 23rd October
Australia: RBA Assistant Governor Boulton Speaks
United Kingdom: Bank of England MPC Member Haldane to speak. Haldane is one of more hawkish member of the Monetary Policy Council but given the Brexit backdrop he will have a tough time convincing markets that the BoE should or could hike rates any time soon.
United States: FOMC members Kashkari, Bostic and Evans to speak.
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney to speak. He has been vocal in his concerns about Brexit-related uncertainty’s damaging impact on the UK economy and events of the past fortnight will have if anything crystalised those concerns.
Wednesday 24th October
Eurozone: Manufacturing and services Purchasing Managers Indices (October, preliminary data). The consensus forecast is that both measures edged lower from September which would do little for an-under-pressure Euro.
New Zealand: Trade balance (September). Consensus forecast is for a narrowing of the deficit to NZD 1.4bn from NZD 1.5bn in August.
United States: New home sales (September)
United States: FOMC members Bullard, Bostic and Mester to speak.
Thursday 25th October
Germany: Ifo Business Climate Index (October). The consensus forecast is for a second consecutive monthly fall in the index, albeit from still high levels.
Eurozone: European Central Bank policy meeting and press conference. The ECB will in all likelihood keep its policy rates unchanged but markets will be looking for any signs that the ECB has tweaked its expectations that the next rate hike will take place after summer 2019.
United States: Durable goods orders (September). This volatile measure of US investment is expected to have contracted 1.1% mom following a large +4.5% rise in August. Unlikely to unnerve markets.
United States: Trade balance (September). The deficit jumped to almost $76bn in August which will have displeased US President Trump and expectations that the US trade deficit remained elevated at $75bn in September suggest that the US government is unlikely to back track on its protectionist policies.
United States: Pending home sales (September).
United States: FOMC member Clarida to speak.
Friday 26th October
United States: FOMC member Mester to speak
United States: Q3 GDP (first reading).This is an important data release given expectations that US economic growth remained strong in Q3 and therefore justifies the Fed’s hawkish stance that more rate hikes are necessary. The consensus forecast is that GDP growth slowed to 3.3% qoq annualised from 4.2% qoq in Q2 but some estimates put growth at close to 4%. Growth nearer 3%, alongside the moderation in US inflation in recent months, may cause markets to slightly revise their expectations for Fed hikes over the next 12 months and in turn put the Dollar under modest pressure.
Eurozone: European Central Bank President Draghi and Board Member Coeure to speak. Given that the ECB will have held its policy meeting and press conference the day before Draghi and Coeure may not have that much new to add. They could however use their speeches to tweak the ECB’s tone depending on how markets react to the previous day’s policy meeting
