Both the US and UK will release January inflation data this week and Federal Reserve and Bank of England governors Powell and Carney are due to speak. But markets are likely to be distracted by the looming threat of another US government shutdown and the looming threat of a no-deal Brexit.
German GDP data for Q4 are due for release on Thursday but to the extent that data for the full-year 2018 are already out markets may instead turn their attention to Eurozone composite PMI and CPI-inflation data due out on respectively 21st and 22nd February.
In New Zealand the RBNZ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.75% but its tone may, like other major central banks, turn more cautious.
Monday 11th February
United States: FOMC member Bowman to speak. Bowman is perhaps less vocal then other FOMC members and he is unlikely to materially move the needle on how markets perceive the Federal Reserve at this juncture.
Tuesday 12th February
Australia: Home loans (December)
Australia: NAB business confidence index (January)
Eurozone: Finance Ministers meeting
United Kingdom: Bank of England Governor Carney to speak. The BoE’s recent inflation report saw significant downward revisions to the bank’s GDP growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 and this is likely to colour Carney’s tone near-term. He has been critical of Brexit in the past, particularly the lack of clarity.
United States: Fed Chairperson Powell and FOMC members George and Mester to speak
Wednesday 13th February
New Zealand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting. The RBNZ has left its policy on hold at 1.75% since late-2016 and is unlikely to move on rates any time soon. However, it may take its cue from other major central banks and issue a somewhat more cautious statement, with Governor Orr echoing this stance in his subsequent press conference.
United Kingdom: CPI-inflation (January). Headline CPI-inflation has been on a downward path since it hit 3.0% yoy in late 2017-early 2018 and the consensus forecast is that it fell further in January 2019 to 1.9% yoy from 2.1% yoy in December. Core CPI-inflation has been pretty stable around 1.9% yoy since mid-2018 and analysts don’t foresee any change in January. CPI-inflation data and Bank of England policy meetings have arguably lost some of their bite in recent months as markets’ focus has been mainly on Brexit-related developments. The BoE is unlikely to consider any change in its policy rate until it has far greater clarity as to if/when and under what terms and conditions the UK will exit the European Union.
Eurozone: Industrial output (December)
United States: CPI-inflation (January). Inflationary pressures remain well contained – a point which a number of FOMC members have made in recent weeks. US headline CPI-inflation has shed a full percentage point in the past six months (to 1.9% yoy in December) and analysts expect a large fall to 1.5% yoy in January. Core CPI-inflation, which tends to be more stable as it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, has continued to hover just above 2% yoy.
United States: FOMC Members Bostic, Mester and Harker to speak
Thursday 14th February
Germany: Q4 GDP (first estimate). GDP growth in the full-year 2018 was 1.5% which, assuming no revisions to previous quarters, implies that growth rebounded to about +0.2% qoq in Q4 following a 0.2% qoq contraction in Q3. Germany has likely avoided a recession but growth in the Eurozone’s largest economy remains lacklustre.
Eurozone: Q4 GDP (second estimate). Eurozone GDP growth was unchanged at a paltry 0.2% qoq in Q4 based on the preliminary estimate.
United States: Retail sales (December). This release was originally due out on 16 January. Retail sales rose both in October and November and analysts forecast a third consecutive increase in December (of 0.1% mom).
Australia: Reserve Bank of Assistant Governor Kent to speak. The RBA has adopted a more cautious tone in recent weeks, which has seen the markets waiver over whether the next move will be a rate hike or cut.
New Zealand: Business NZ PMI (January)
Friday 15th February
United Kingdom: Retail sales (January). This is a historically volatile data series.
Eurozone: Trade balance (December).
United States: NY Empire state manufacturing PMI (February). Will give an early indication of how the US economy fared in early Q1 2019 following sharp declines in December 2018 and January 2019.
United States: Industrial output (January).
United States: FOMC Members Bostic and Mester to speak
United States: Deal to fund government expires. If US President Trump and the Democrat-led House of Representatives are unable to reach an agreement on the funding of Trump’s border wall and reach a broader funding deal, the government will once again go in shutdown (the previous one was a record breaking 35 days)
Monday 18th February
United States: Public holiday
Tuesday 19th February
United Kingdom: Labour market data (December)
Eurozone: German ZEW economic sentiment (February)
Thursday 21st February
Australia: Labour market data (January). The Australian economy has created a respectable 92,000 jobs in the past three months and the labour market remains resilient. The housing market has arguably been under greater pressure.
United States: Durable goods (December). This release was originally due out on 25 January.
Eurozone: Composite PMI (February). This measure of economic activity has collapsed in the past 12 months to 51 from a multi-year high of 58.8 in January 2018 although the correlation between the Composite PMI and Eurozone GDP growth has become somewhat less robust.
United States: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (February).
United States: Existing home sales (January).
Friday 22nd February
Eurozone: CPI-inflation (January)
